In early 2026, scientists confirmed that a large stretch of land beneath Yellowstone National Park — roughly the size of Chicago — has exhibited noticeable ground uplift, sparking intense discussion in both scientific circles and popular media about what this could mean.

What’s Happening Underground?

Between July and December 2025, precise GPS and satellite radar measurements detected an uplift of about 2 cm (≈0.8 inches) along the northern edge of Yellowstone’s caldera, particularly near the Norris Geyser Basin region.

This rising ground covers a vast area — roughly 19 miles (≈30 km) across — so it’s often compared to the size of Chicago for scale.

This movement is part of a phenomenon scientists call the Norris Uplift Anomaly (NUA), which has been observed before in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and shows up periodically as Yellowstone’s massive underground system shifts.

Are Scientists “in Panic”? Not Really

Despite dramatic headlines, volcanologists are not saying Yellowstone is about to erupt soon.

• The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) emphasize that ground movement like this is not unusual and has happened before as part of the park’s natural volcanic and hydrothermal cycle.
• Long-term ground deformation at Yellowstone has included both uplift and subsidence, and the caldera’s surface has risen and fallen many times over decades.

Scientists including Mike Poland (head of YVO) describe this uplift as “stunning” but not necessarily alarming, and they stress the importance of long-term monitoring instead of short-term panic.

So What Does 2 cm Mean?

• Even though 2 cm sounds small, it’s significant because it’s measurable using high-precision GPS and radar.
• However, Yellowstone’s ground constantly shifts due to changes in magma pressure, hydrothermal fluids, snowmelt, groundwater, and tectonic forces — not just magma rising.
• Past studies show that the ground can rise several centimeters per year without indicating an eruption.

Does This Signal an Impending Eruption?

NO — Not Based on Current Data

Experts repeatedly say that uprising ground alone isn’t a reliable predictor of volcanic eruptions. Supervolcano systems like Yellowstone are complex and change slowly over thousands of years.

Recent scientific research even shows that the magma reservoir beneath Yellowstone has features — including a **volatile-rich “safety cap” — that help release pressure over time rather than lead to sudden explosive activity.

What Scientists Are Doing Now

Researchers continue to:

• Track ground movement with networks of GPS and satellite systems.
• Monitor earthquake activity, which can signal magma movement or changes in underground stress.
• Study how hydrothermal features and magma dynamics interact deep below the surface.

This data helps keep Yellowstone one of the most closely watched volcanic systems on Earth.

Bottom Line for Readers

Yes — there’s been measurable ground uplift (around 2 cm over a few months) beneath a Chicago-sized area at Yellowstone.
This is part of the volcano’s normal behavior cycles and has happened before.
No official scientific body is predicting an eruption based on this movement alone.

In short, while Yellowstone’s shift is interesting and worth studying, it’s far from clear evidence of imminent volcanic doom — and experts encourage understanding, not fear.